Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 16.136867 18.410364 20.868668 23.721719 26.939188 30.452660 34.577487
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.321148 15.275758 18.722071 23.028777 28.256240 34.384945 42.104152
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 10.629206 13.895048 17.891963 23.124899 29.775431 37.923901 48.641597
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 9.440725 12.932768 17.391268 23.471667 31.515007 41.753658 55.733501
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.470965 12.087310 16.877399 23.644683 32.910604 45.097811 62.277545
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 7.550946 11.187779 16.170772 23.442091 33.716411 47.637940 67.837853
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 6.917647 10.607422 15.820978 23.655196 35.043936 50.894014 74.496058
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.534887 10.341151 15.872975 24.410911 37.147472 55.308426 82.992316
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 5.935261 9.686708 15.291139 24.169762 37.751175 57.576963 88.490079
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.164821 8.693410 14.111715 22.921020 36.735757 57.375483 90.283109
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.909730 8.491280 14.125063 23.494929 38.510988 61.402828 98.613944
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.685683 8.316816 14.161526 24.094521 40.344367 65.595088 107.397719
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.299676 7.845572 13.694412 23.864815 40.869479 67.831152 113.333222
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.907539 7.329059 13.111624 23.397776 40.970300 69.391540 118.273117
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.643278 7.011946 12.836072 23.417941 41.861338 72.246103 125.428251
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.462126 6.828101 12.773980 23.795069 43.369332 76.179971 134.558243
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.263875 6.594205 12.602978 23.961493 44.511145 79.544680 142.884735
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.029535 6.270718 12.244005 23.759276 44.979850 81.771598 149.357428
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.873175 6.084099 12.120698 23.974106 46.197317 85.337628 158.311289
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.799597 6.054893 12.288868 24.739743 48.456828 90.836610 170.933240
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.606542 5.766831 11.939841 24.495422 48.821217 92.964013 177.610704
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.312868 5.244600 11.095106 23.230854 47.176844 91.356367 177.401079
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.245494 5.195321 11.185705 23.812047 49.098791 96.383072 189.641462